By: Kwasi Kwakye Serbeh, Esq.
It is not uncommon in politics for people to resort to hopeful permutations when the odds are heavily stacked against them. As the political winds shift and certainty fades, even the most seasoned actors begin to trade firm convictions for optimistic analogies. Dr Mahamudu Bawumia’s latest comment that since John Mahama returned from opposition to win in 2024, he too can return in 2028, is a classic example of a man substituting strategy with speculation.
There is a famous line attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte: “Men are moved by two levers only: fear and self-interest.” In politics, when fear of defeat is at its peak and self-interest becomes paramount, many cease …
[2:09 pm, 24/06/2025] Filmlance Multimedia: DR BAWUMIA’S NEWFOUND LOVE FOR PERMUTATIONS: A GENTLE CAUTION
By: Kwasi Kwakye Serbeh, Esq.
It is not uncommon in politics for people to resort to hopeful permutations when the odds are heavily stacked against them. As the political winds shift and certainty fades, even the most seasoned actors begin to trade firm convictions for optimistic analogies. Dr Mahamudu Bawumia’s latest comment that since John Mahama returned from opposition to win in 2024, he too can return in 2028, is a classic example of a man substituting strategy with speculation.
There is a famous line attributed to Napoleon Bonaparte: “Men are moved by two levers only: fear and self-interest.” In politics, when fear of defeat is at its peak and self-interest becomes paramount, many cease campaigning on vision and records, and begin drawing comparisons and devising permutations to stay relevant.
At the very forum where Dr Bawumia made this prediction, he also offered another curious theory that sitting Presidents in Ghana always hand over to former contenders. It was an attempt to find comfort in trend analysis, but it conveniently ignored one significant historical fact: Professor Albert Adu Boahene. He fiercely contested Flt. Lt. Jerry John Rawlings in 1992, but never returned to become President. If anything, his trajectory may well mirror Dr Bawumia’s own political journey more closely than the example of John Mahama.
Since Dr Bawumia is now a friend of permutations and political lottery, let us humour him with his own logic. John Mahama, after suffering a defeat of nearly one million votes in 2016, remained in opposition for eight years, losing two election cycles in 2016 and 2020 before his eventual return in 2024. Dr Bawumia, on the other hand, led the NPP into the 2024 election and suffered a defeat by nearly two million votes, double Mahama’s margin. By this same permutation logic, should we expect him to be in opposition for sixteen years, losing four election cycles, before a return becomes conceivable?
The good former Vice President would do well to remember that history is not mathematics, and politics is not the Ghana Lotto. In this new era, it is not permutations that win elections but performance, credibility and connection with the people. Rather than weaving fragile political numerology, Dr Bawumia would serve his party and the country better by focusing on building a campaign around his strengths, if any remain untarnished by his record.
No permutation, however optimistic, can compensate for public disaffection. Ghana’s electorate is becoming increasingly discerning, and slogans will no longer suffice. It is therefore imperative that Dr Bawumia comes to terms with the hard lessons of 2024 and avoids the temptation to rewrite his future with hopeful arithmetic.
The future will be decided not by permutations, but by performance, past and promised.
