President Umaro Sissoco Embaló is pushing to make history this month by becoming Guinea-Bissau’s first sitting president in 30 years to win re-election.

But his first term has been anything but calm. Since taking office in 2020, his government has reported several attempts to overthrow him, including a dramatic 2022 attack that saw hours of gunfire near the cabinet building.

Meanwhile, the country’s cocaine trade is thriving.
A recent civil society report suggests trafficking may be more profitable than ever, adding yet another layer of instability.

Embaló, a 53-year-old former army general, has also faced constant challenges to his legitimacy. Critics say he didn’t win the 2019 election fairly and accuse him of overstaying his mandate.

Even so, he heads into the November 23 presidential and legislative elections as the clear favourite, helped by the exclusion of his main rival, former prime minister Domingos Simões Pereira. But a second term won’t make governing easier.

The country’s supreme court ruled that the PAIGC and its candidate Domingos Simões Pereira had submitted their nomination too late.

Pereira is a former prime minister and President Embaló’s foremost rival. His party won the last legislative election in 2023.

The upcoming vote will be the first general election without PAIGC since Guinea-Bissau’s independence from Portugal in 1974.

The country’s 860,000 voters will head to the polls to elect a president and 102 parliament members. They will have to choose between 12 presidential candidates, including current president Umaro Sissoco Embaló, who appears as a favourite.

Guinea-Bissau remains heavily dependent on volatile cashew exports, and major goals like reducing poverty and improving health and education remain elusive.

The country’s political stability is a crucial issue in the vote to come.
Several senior military officers were arrested on Friday on accusations of trying to stage a coup. The army said it had thwarted an “attempt to subvert the constitutional order.”